UFC Fight Island 2: Chris Fishgold vs. Jared Gordon, full breakdown + gambling analysis

Chris Fishgold (+126) vs. Jared Gordon (-148)

When: July 14th, 7PM Eastern Time

Where: Yas Island, United Arab Emirates

Jared Gordon heads into his Fight Island bout with Chris Fishgold under unusual circumstances. Gordon will be without his coaches following news that they had tested positive for COVID-19. As a result, former teammate Paul Felder will be stepping in to corner “Flash” Gordon while serving as a commentator for the event. Tonight will mark Gordon’s first appearance in the Octagon since being KO’d by Charles Oliveira in Brazil last year.

As for Fishgold, he will be one of many Brits on this card who are itching for a fight. Fishgold last lost to Makwan Amirkhani via Anaconda choke and is 1-2 in the UFC outright, the other less coming to Calvin Kattar.

While Gordon is 1-3 over his last four UFC appearances, Chris Fishgold is a grappling based fighter. The biggest critique from fans in regards to Jared Gordon is that he can be a bit chinny, seeing as how all of his UFC defeats have come via knockout.

With that said, Chris Fishgold has a game-plan that he generally sticks to. He likes to punch his opponent into a corner before taking him down and going for the back. It doesn’t always work out, however, as the Englishman was choked out by Amirkhani and even lost some grappling exchanges to Daniel Teymour, who is not known for his grappling. I’m not saying that Fishgold is a Ben Askren tier striker, but that wouldn’t even be the worst comparison.

As for Gordon, he has the clear edge on the feet. The stats may not show it over his last few fights, but this is primarily why I don’t value striking stats all that much. Each match-up is different and in this one, Gordon has the edge.

Jared Gordon has also spoke about his training camp leading up to this fight and says that they have had a heavy focus on ground game. They seem to be preparing for Fishgold to bring the same game-plan, which even if he doesn’t, should pay off. As I stated before, Gordon can be chinny but Fishgold is far from a knockout artist. If he gets the win, it will be via grappling control or submission. If Gordon is prepared for this game-plan, I just can’t see how he loses this fight.

It should also be noted that Fishgold missed weight by nearly five pounds. Being five pounds heavier isn’t going to make him exponentially heavier in a grappling based fight and if anything, will probably wear on his gas tank. Gordon already has the clear cardio advantage and a potentially out of shape Fishgold could help even more.

The line could certainly be better, but I like Jared Gordon at (-148). Submission/points double chance sits at (+100), which isn’t worth the risk for me. If I had to pick a method of victory it would be Gordon by points (+185), but I’m sticking with the line in this one.

Prediction and play: Jared Gordon moneyline (-148)

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