Jake Paul vs. Tyron Woodley, full fight breakdown + betting analysis

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Tyron Woodley (+148) vs. Jake Paul (-182)

I’ll be real, I’m actually looking forward to this fight. It’s intriguing because we really just don’t know what’s going to happen.

For Askren-Paul, I said that was free money. I won’t accuse Askren of “taking a dive”, but Askren was winning either way that night. His MMA career is over, he’s focused on coaching wrestling and a fight with Jake Paul was a free payday. Not to mention how Askren was long regarded as one of the weaker boxers on the MMA scene. Jake Paul moneyline was free money.

This time around, Paul has a legitimate challenge in front of him. To his credit, Jake definitely took the toughest fight on the table. Woodley was calling for the fight immediately following an altercation with a member of Paul’s entourage prior to the Askren bout and if I’m being honest, I didn’t think Jake would take the fight against a former UFC champion. He did, however, and I think this will help his boxing career win or lose.

Woodley should present a far greater challenge, however. Paul has quite the size advantage, which cannot be overlooked, but Woodley has basically everything else. Jake Paul has never been in a true dogfight where he’s having punishment come back. If Woodley can bring relentless pressure, I see Jake losing.

This really is what this fight should come down to. If Woodley can be in his face, bobbing and weaving, Jake Paul will be left without his one advantage. On the flip side, his one advantage is quite a significant one. If Woodley can’t close the gap, only a couple shots down the pike could cause huge issues. They have weight classes for a reason and Paul has been training for a couple years now. He’s sparred with multiple MMA fighters, so it isn’t like he’s just some influencer who strapped on boxing gloves.

Ultimately though, I can’t not take a chance on Woodley with plus odds. The step up in competition for Jake Paul a big leap to say the least. Woodley’s recent losses coming against the best MMA welterweights in the world without question. He can’t be backing up like he garnered a reputation for in MMA, but without the threat of a takedown he should be able to advance. Plus, even Askren managed to connect with a decent overhand against Paul in their short fight. If Woodley connects that shot it will be different.

Tyron Woodley has all the tools, he has the motivation, and the moneyline is a great price for a fighter of his caliber. I won’t mess around with a knockout prop at this price, but the line is certainly a play for me.

Prediction and play: Tyron Woodley moneyline (+148)

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