Alonzo Menifield vs. Ed Herman, full fight breakdown + betting analysis

Alonzo Menifield (-245) vs. Ed Herman (+200)

Weight Class: Light Heavyweight (205 lbs)

Alonzo Menifield will be going for two wins in a row after a huge comeback win his last go around. Menifield snapped a two-fight losing streak with a first round submission against Fabio Cherant.

It should be noted that Menifield lost to high level completion over that streak, however. He first lost a unanimous decision to Devin Clark and was then knocked out by OSP in his next appearance. Prior to those losses, he had won each of his two UFC fights via knockout, including an impressive KO win over Paul Craig.

His losing skid led to gas tank questions. Menifield tends to empty the tank in the first round and has gassed out in the past. He does have very heavy hands with laser-like precision, but he could stand to take 20% off at times, or so it seems.

Grabbing a win by submission was unexpected as well. It showed that the Dallas native will add wrinkles to his game as he progresses. So one would assume that cardio and patience issues are improving as well.

As for Ed Herman, the longtime MMA veteran will be looking for his fourth straight win. Currently 40-years-old, he snapped a three-fight losing streak against Patrick Cummins back in 2019. He has since seen a late-career renaissance with wins Khardis Ibragimov and Mike Rodriguez since. He has won at least one of each of his last three by decision, submission and knockout.

Herman has been knocked out before, most recently by Nikita Krylov. He was also KO’d by Derek Brunson, who has underrated power but isn’t known as a knockout guy.

I will say that I have to go with Menifield by KO here. At 40 years-old, Herman has had some wear and tear on the chin. He has lost most of his fights when facing a legitimate step up in competition and Menifield certainly is that. Herman is also a bit slower than Menifield, who has fast hands for the decision. I see him getting hit quite a bit.

Herman is certainly durable, but damage adds up. He’s been in some firefights, so up and coming, heavy hitters like Menifield could present issues. 

At (-120), Alonzo Menifield by KO is a solid play. I personally won’t be making a big play on it straight up, but it is a great parlay booster and certainly has value straight. I just want to gauge where Menifield is at with this fight. This could be a huge establishing knockout for him, but there is a chance the same issues of the past resurface. So it’s a parlay for me, but I like the play.

Prediction and play: Alonzo Menifield by KO (-120)

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