Men’s Olympic Golf Round Four Betting Analysis + Predictions

The fourth and final round of the modern era’s second Olympic golf tournament will conclude this afternoon in Tokyo. Beginning at 7:30 AM local time (6:30 ET), day four is shaping up to be a very exciting day of golf, with multiple golfers and nations very much in the hunt. This includes several top-tier pro players, as well as some down-ticket guys who are making a run.

Xander Schauffele of the United States currently holds a two-stroke lead over 2021 Masters Champion Hideki Matsuyama, who will be looking to bring home the gold in his native Japan. Great Britain’s Paul Casey and Mexico’s Carlos Ortiz will start play just two strokes back of Schauffele at (-12), while Rory McIlroy (Republic of Ireland) highlights a four-way tie at fourth.

Check out our full breakdown for day four action, which includes winner predictions as well as medal finishes. All lines referenced are courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.

To Win Outright (Gold Medal)

Xander Schauffele, USA (+175)

We’ll start with the leader in Xander Schauffele, who will also start the day as the betting favorite. The American didn’t have his A-game on day three, but he managed to gut out a solid performance. He then hit a clutch birdie on the back nine that gave him a two-stroke lead.

Xander Schauffele has a very strong chance to bring home the gold. Avoiding meltdowns in golf is arguably more important than posting huge leads. The fact that Schauffele was able to end the day with a two-stroke lead, while not having his best stuff, bodes very well for him. He has had some troubling Sundays in the past, however, and we don’t have much to go off in regards to how steep Olympic pressure is. At (+175) there is still plenty of value, however, and the line could get out of hand early depending on what happens.\

The line for Schauffele to win a medal (top three finish) isn’t great, however. The American commands the steepest price for this prop at (-250), which has essentially no value given how jumbled the field is.

Hideki Matsuyama, Japan (+280)

The most recent Masters Champion has excellent value in regards to winning a gold medal. He sits just two strokes back and has plenty of experience at Kasumigaseki Country Club. It is where he first became a golf star, winning both the won the 2009 Japan Junior and 2010 Asia Pacific Amateur Championship (AAC) at the course.

Matsuyama is right there and has a similar day three to that of Xander Schauffele. He didn’t post the highest score, but he kept himself in great position and was inches away from being a stroke back.

The Masters Champion has shown that he can perform under the bright lights and seems to be feeding off the energy of going for gold in his native Japan. His experience at Kasumigaseki Country Club matters, as golfers routinely get themselves in good headspaces when playing on familiar turf. We saw this most recently with Jon Rahm’s U.S. Open win at Torrey Pines, where he won his first PGA event.

At (+280), Hideki Matsuyama is my pick to win a gold medal.

Rory McIlroy, Republic of Ireland (+1000)

Rory McIlroy sits just three back of the lead and is getting some betting action for sure. Rory at (+1000) is quite a good price, though I will say that I’m going to fade him to win gold.

McIlroy is approaching the Olympics like any other golf tournament. He typically represents Great Britain in international tournaments and his representation of Ireland is a surprise to some. He described himself as “not very patriotic” in a recent interview, so take that how you will.

I personally think this will work against him, but we really don’t know. Will Rory be able to fly under the radar since he’s taking a different approach to this unique piece of silverware? Perhaps, but I tend to believe that others will be more motivated than him. He also appeared frustrated yesterday and will need to get that under control.

Still, I can’t hate on Rory to win at (+1000) and many might take this bet. I’m personally going to stay away, but that’s just me. McIlroy can also tend to be an all or nothing player, so I don’t see much value in a medal prop at (+200) either.

To Win A Medal (Top Three Finish)

Tommy Fleetwood, Great Britain (+550)

Day three’s leading scorer Tommy Fleetwood sits just four back from the lead at (-10) after shooting seven under on the round. Sometimes it’s tough to follow up such a big performance, but Fleetwood seems to be very relaxed and in a nice groove right now.

At (+550), he is certainly worth a flier for a top three finish. He’s shown he can generate the offense and there are golfers above him more prone to a fold. Fleetwood has had some troubling Sundays this year, however, but British golfers have been playing very well in the Olympics and he will be looking to continue that trend. Justin Rose won gold in 2016 while Paul Casey currently sits in a playoff slot for a bronze medal. At just two strokes away from the podium, Fleetwood is worth a flier.

Shane Lowry, Republic of Ireland (+500)

Were it not for a wayward shot that got stuck in a Japanese pine tree, Shane Lowry could be just one back or better. The Irishman had eagle eyes and was able to locate his ball, thus saving him a more devastating penalty. He recovered well and managed to lose just one stroke on the shot.

As he has been known to do, Lowry has been inching his way up in this tournament. He was inches away from multiple birdies on the back nine and if he can touch up the putting just a bit, he has a very good chance to win a medal. He is also much more motivated to bring the gold back to Ireland than McIlroy, that’s for sure.

At (+500), the 2020 Open Championship winner is certainly worth a flier. Lowry has turned in some of his best golf on Sundays in recent months and is certainly worth the price in this slot.

Collin Morikawa, United States (+2700)

A pre-tournament outright favorite, Morikawa has his work cut out for him at seven strokes off the lead. Fresh off his win at the Open Championship, the California golf phenom will certainly have his work cut out for him. But at just four strokes off of a medal slot, he may be worth a pocket change bet at this price.

It’s a longshot, but Morikawa is one of the best there is at inching his way up a leaderboard. If things break right for him in regards to golfers above him, meaning they collapse, this could be a great price. Again, it’s a longshot, but if anyone this far down the leaderboard is capable of posting a score, Morikawa tops that list. At (+2700), Morikawa could be worth a stab in hopes for a third place finish.

Paul Casey, Great Britain (+130)

Though no fault of his own, Paul Casey is my fade for a medal prop. It has nothing to do with him, because he’s playing some great gold, and everything to do with this price. There just isn’t much value here compared to the names above, though he currently finds himself slated for a playoff slot.

Casey to win currently sits at (+700), but I don’t particularly like that either. Paul Casey could certainly medal, but this price just isn’t worth it in my opinion.

Abraham Ancer, Mexico, (+6500)

Ancer is another longshot who might be worthwhile given the price. At just five off the lead, this gets more enticing just writing about it. Ancer has been posting some great Sunday scores in recent months, including multiple top ten finishes in stacked tournaments.

I like Ancer’s odds from a betting perspective far more than his countryman Carlos Ortiz purely because of the price. Ortiz to win a medal currently sits at (+220), which is a better value than Casey, but I tend to think Casey is a better player.

Still, at just two shots off the podium, it’s hard to say Abraham Ancer doesn’t have betting value.

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