Renato Moicano vs. Jai Herbert, full fight breakdown + betting analysis

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Jai Herbert (-225) vs. Renato Moicano (+165)

Weight Class: Lightweight 155 (lbs)

Former Cage Warriors champ Jai Herbert will be looking to pick up his first UFC victory when he takes on Renato Moicano at UFC Vegas 30.

Herbert is a rangy striker who is big for the division. He will hold a reach advantage in this one, which he tends to have. He is a solid striker and has demonstrated some above average clinching ability.

His UFC debut didn’t go as planned when he was knocked out by Francisco Trinaldo last year. Between Moicano and Trinaldo matchmaking, the UFC clearly thinks rather highly of Herbert.

For Moicano, he will be looking to right the ship after being knocked out in three of his last four outings. While that sounds horrific, he has been KO’d by elite knockout artists. He most recently was ko’d by Rafael Fiziev, who is a very highly regarded prosect. Before that, he was KO’d by the Korean Zombie and Jose Aldo. Needless to say, these are respectable losses.

In between the Zombie and Fiziev fights, Moicano picked up a quick submission over Damir Hadžović last March. Though a short outing, everything to like about Moicano’s game was on full display. He was able to close distance well and land solid strikes of his own.

The Brazilian can also mix it up between rangy striking and closer shots. On the ground, he is very crafty. He pounces on submissions quickly and can get open-mat takedowns.

Ultimately, I like Moicano to win this fight and I like him to do it by submission. Herbert has a tendency to give up his back and Moicano will pounce on that. At (-225), Moicano moneyline isn’t bad. However, the submission prop currently sits at (+195), which I see a clear path to. Using the cage to defend takedowns won’t help against Moicano and if he gives up his back, it could be over quick. I think it’s certainly worth a play.

Prediction and play: Renato Moicano by submission (+195)

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