Terrance McKinney (+158) vs. Matt Frevola (-188)

Weight Class: Lightweight (155 lbs)

After an unfortunate car crash forced Frank Camacho to withdraw from UFC 263, Matt Frevola will be matched up with another short notice opponent. This time he will be facing Contender’s Series veteran Terrance McKinney.

For McKinney, this will be his second fight in less than ten days. He just recently secured a first round KO for an LFA title last weekend.

McKinney has more than one first round stoppage on his resume. He also turned in a very good performance against Charles Woodson before getting caught with a flying knee. A decorated D2 collegiate wrestler, McKinney showed off his ground game and racked up lots of control in that one.

Style wise, McKinney is quite well rounded. He does look to finish the fight early, so we have to wonder where his cardio is at after having to cut weight twice in a week. He is certainly a UFC caliber fighter, however, and this should be a win-win for him.

As for Frevola, he typically wins his fights via volume takedowns. He is very good at implementing a ground game in an MMA fight and has good double and single-leg takedowns. Frevola also has excellent grappling cardio, though he isn’t necessarily someone who can “khabib” his opponent.

Ultimately, I think Frevola gets this one done by decision. McKinney could gas himself out and end up getting finished, or get the finish himself, but I don’t see it. It’s just too much of a mountain to climb for a UFC debut.

At (+270), I like Matt Frevola by points from a betting standpoint. Money is also coming in on McKinney, so the line on Frevola has gotten a-lot better at (-188). At this point, it’s a worthwhile moneyline for parlays.

Prediction and play: Matt Frevola by points (+270)

More UFC 263 Breakdowns:

Carlos Felipe vs. Jake Collier

Luigi Vendramini vs. Fares Ziam

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