Carlos Felipe vs. Jake Collier, full fight breakdown + betting analysis

Jake Collier (+144) vs. Carlos Felipe (-178)

Weight Class: Heavyweight (265 lbs)

Two heavyweights coming off impressive wins will be squaring up at UFC 263 in Jake Collier and Carlos Felipe.

For Jake Collier, he is coming off of a much needed bounce-back win over Gian Villante. A former middleweight, Collier lost his heavyweight debut rather handily last year. Granted, he was KO’d by Tom Aspinall, who I see as a future top five heavyweight. But with that said, Collier certainly got knocked out badly. The Aspinall fight was the first since 2017 for Collier and his first at heavyweight. He didn’t look composed during the walk-outs and didn’t even survive the one minute mark.

The perception of this current iteration of Jake Collier changed dramatically after his last fight, however. Collier was able to generate a very high work rate en-route to a convincing victory over Gian Villante. His kicks really provided an exclamation point on the first round, as the former middleweight demonstrated above average movement for the heavyweight division.

As for Felipe, he is riding a two-fight winning streak after losing his UFC debut to Serghei Spivak. A loss to Spivak in a debut fight is totally understandable, and Felipe was able to hold his own before Spivak’s wrestling took over in round three. After that, he knocked off the, at the time, highly touted Jorgan De Castro in a co-main event last October. In that fight, Felipe was able to take over in rounds two or three and demonstrated great cardio for the division.

He then secured what I believe was his most impressive win to date over Justin Tafa. Though Tafa has had a rather underwhelming UFC career thus far, he definitely doles out punishment and has barely lost his last two fights. In that fight, Tafa dealt some early punishment, particularly in the leg kick department. Felipe, a pressure fighter, was able to more or less walk through the fire, however. He then took over in rounds two and three en-route to a tight decision.

For this one, it’s tough not to pick Carlos Felipe. He is a natural heavyweight but with above average hand-speed and cardio. As good as Collier’s round one against Villante was, he definitely slowed down in the following rounds. As for Felipe, we’ve seen him get better as the fight goes on. I also don’t think Collier’s kicking game will be as effective against a pressure fighter like Felipe. Felipe will also push a much higher pace than Gian Villante, so Collier might not be able to get into a rhythm.

From a betting perspective, I like Carlos Felipe moneyline at (-178) a-lot. Money seems to be coming in on Collier, so it’s possible that the price could be better come fight time. I did bet Carlos Felipe moneyline as a parlay piece, but it is on the cusp of straight bet territory, at least for me.

As for method props, Carlos Felipe by points currently sits at (+160) on FanDuel. This is a very likely outcome, but I don’t love it at that price. Felipe by knockout at (+300) is far more valuable in my opinion. Felipe may not be a knockout gut, but knockouts are far more frequent at heavyweight. Collier isn’t a natural heavyweight and has been KO’d before, so the path is there. I personally put a small wager on Carlos Felipe second round knockout at 12-to-1 odds. This is solid considering how we’ve seen Collier slow down while also seeing Felipe come on stronger as the fight progresses.

Check out the video below for a more detailed analysis.

Prediction and play: Carlos Felipe moneyline (-178)

More UFC 263 Breakdowns:

Luigi Vendramini vs. Fares Ziam

Matt Frevola vs. Terrance McKinney

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