Phil Hawes vs. Kyle Daukaus, full fight breakdown + betting analysis


Phil Hawes (+115) vs. Kyle Daukaus (-132)

Weight Class: Middleweight (185 lbs)

Kyle Daukaus will be looking to improve to 2-1 in the UFC tonight with a win over Phil Hawes. Both fighters are coming off of impressive wins in their last opponents and will now each be looking to level up.

For Hawes, he’s been winning his UFC fights with heavy wrestling pressure. He has been wearing fighters down either in the clinch or on the ground. Striking wise, he has a solid boxing base and decent power. His leg kicks are solid, but we’ve yet to see him run away with a UFC fight on a striking heavy performance.

Cardio has been an issue for Hawes and could be in this one as well. He typically goes very hard in the first round then slows down.

Against Daukaus, this could be an issue. He is big for the division and has excellent BJJ. It might be tough for Hawes to win this one via wrestling pressure, as Daukaus will certainly be able to do at least go 50/50 in exchanges. He should be able to reverse Hawes at times even if he does get pummeled and will be threatening submissions.

It seems as though Hawes could have a striking edge here, but it isn’t defined by any stretch. Daukaus has been making strides in the striking department and had some excellent striking exchanges against Brandon Allen.

Ultimately, it’s tough not to go with Daukaus in this one. It’s just hard to see Hawes winning this one the way he’s been winning. Should be a very big test for both guys, but at (-130), Daukaus is worth a moneyline bet.

As for method of victory, I think Daukaus by sub is certainly worth a flier. If Hawes has cardio issues, that could be a recipe for disaster against Daukaus late in the fight.

Prediction and play: Kyle Daukaus moneyline (-132)

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