TJ Brown vs. Kai Kamaka, full fight breakdown + betting analysis

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TJ Brown (+116) vs. Kai Kamaka (-136)

Weight Class: Featherweight (135 lbs)

Both Kai Kamaka and “Downtown” TJ Brown will be looking to get back in the win column at UFC Vegas 25.

Kamaka was KO’d via ground-and-pound in his last outing. The loss came against Jonathan Pearce, who was supposed to be on this card before his fight with Gabriel Benitez was scrapped.

As for Brown, he has lost both of his UFC appearances after coming in with some hype. He emptied the tank against Jordan Griffin, got very tired and was then submitted. His other appearance was a decision loss against Danny Chavez in which he looked better in the third round, but it wasn’t enough.

As for this bout, it’s a tough one to predict. Both guys are rather untested in the UFC.

Stylistically, Kamaka has solid power. He hasn’t been able to get the finish more often than not, but when he gets in a striking rhythm he’s a problem. He’s also good at getting off heavy shots in brief Thai-plum exchanges. When he’s on, he can be a very grueling fighter to deal with.

As for Brown, he will have a sizable reach advantage in this one. I also think he has faster hands and a bit better head movement.

Ultimately, I see the grappling playing a big role in this one. I give the edge to Brown and if he’s able to get a takedown or two, it could be his fight. He will have to be careful not to gas, but we have to believe that will be on his mind.

From a betting perspective, this is a tough one to bet. It’s a classic dog or bust play for me, and in this case TJ Brown with plus money is enticing. If he has an edge in reach and presumably the grappling department, it’s tough not to go with him in a coin toss fight where he has the plus odds.

It’s not one I’ll be betting my life savings on, but TJ Brown moneyline is worth a play. The price is even better as the fight approaches, with the line closer to (+150).

Prediction and play: Tj Brown moneyline (+120)

More UFC Vegas 25 Breakdowns:

Sean Strickland vs. Krzysztof Jotko

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