Bartosz Fabinski vs. Gerald Meerschaert, full fight breakdown + betting analysis

Gerald Meerschaert (+106) vs. Bartosz Fabinski (-124)

Weight Class: Middleweight (185 lbs)

Both Gerald Meerschaert and Bartosz Fabinski will be looking to get back in the win column at UFC Vegas 24. Both fighters are coming off stoppage losses in their last respective appearances.

For Meerschaert, he was of course demolished with one big shot courtesy of Khazmat Chimaev. Gerald did a solid job of selling that fight, but ultimately he was overmatched. Though I did have Chimaev by KO in that one, I didn’t expect it to happen so quickly. Meerschaert has a-lot of wear and tear over the years, so chin strength could be concerning in this one.

Before that, Gerald was again KO’d by Ian Heinisch. So not good, but before that, he turned in a solid performance against Deron Winn. While ultimately pulling off his sixth UFC submission — which tied him for the Middleweight record — GM3 put on a very well rounded performance. He isn’t the fastest, but his striking is accurate and concise. He has a solid reach advantage and used that to wobble his opponent, then pounced on a rear-naked choke.

Gerald’s submission win over Deron Winn went similarly to most of his submissions. Meerschaert can employ a number of submissions from top or bottom and does so patiently. He has very long limbs, which give him some edges on the mat.

As for Fabinski, his suspect submission defense makes this one very interesting. Fabinski essentially looks to just go out there and use heavy wrestling start to finish. He gets his takedowns by driving into the fence and is more than capable of dominating rounds, as we saw in his fight with Darren Stewart.

But for Fabinski, he has found himself walking into submissions more than once. It happened last time our when he was submitted via arm-bar. Andre Muniz secured the submission just seconds after almost having a guillotine.

It was a similar story against Michel Prazeres.

So to be brief with this one, it’s tough not to like Gerald Meerschaert by submission at (+220). Fabinski has been exposed this way repeatedly, and I wouldn’t be shocked if we see Gerald simply hunting for submissions the entire fight.

This is a double edged sword, as Gerald could easily give up top control and lose a decision. He’s been controlled on the ground before and his chin is suspect, as we talked about earlier. With that said, it’s tough not to like Gerald Meerschaert’s chances in a fight expected to take place largely on the ground. There’s enough value here for a solid sprinkle bet or parlay key at (+220).

Prediction and play: Gerald Meerschaert by submission (+220)

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