Vicente Luque vs. Tyron Woodley, full fight breakdown + betting analysis

Tyron Woodley (+184) vs. Vicente Luque (-220)

Weight Class: Welterweight (170 lbs)

Former UFC Welterweight Champion Tyron Woodley will be taking on the highly regarded Vicente Luque at UFC 260.

For Luque, the fight against Woodley presents a massive opportunity. A longtime UFC veteran, Luque has finished nine of his UFC wins, including his most recent two. Since losing rather decisively to Stephen Thompson at UFC 244. Luque has secured a knockout victory over Randy Brown and a third round TKO over Niko Price.

Luque — now 29 — is one of the more underrated fighters on the roster, in my opinion. His chin is battle tested and he’s one of the best “take one to give one” fighters out there. A Gilbert Burns training partner, Vicente Luque has a sneaky submission game to compliment his striking. He typically keeps a high stance and has viscous leg kicks that he uses to neutralize the jab.

On the feet, Luque should certainly have the edge in this one. Woodley is not typically the advancing fighter and his power bar certainly seems to have declined from his heyday.

With that said, Woodley’s last three losses have come against Gilbert Burns, Colby Convington and Kamaru Usman. These are all world class fighters and arguably, among the best in the world. Tyron Woodley may be in the twilight of his career, but he could certainly find a way to beat Vicente Luque.

If that is to happen, Woodley will likely have to mix in his wrestling. Luque was out-grappled to a decision loss against Leon Edwards, so he could be looking to exploit that.

Ultimately, however, I think Vicente Luque is worthy of being favored here. This could very well be the fight where Luque shows how good he truly is. He came up short against Wonderboy, but he’s one of the best technical strikers of all time. Woodley will have no such edge on the feet. While he could have it on the ground, I just have a hard time seeing Luque getting “Khabib’d” here.

I do expect Woodley to bring it, however, and thought that Luque as a 3-to-1 favorite was too much. Money has been flowing in Woodley’s direction as fight time looms, with Luque moneyline down to (-220) with FanDuel. For these reasons, I don’t like Luque to get the finish and will be making a sprinkle bet on Luque by points.

Prediction and play: Vicente Luque by points (+160)

More UFC 260 Breakdowns:

Khama Worthy vs. Jamie Mullarkey

Sean O’Malley vs. Thomas Almeida

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