Israel Adesanya (-230) vs. Jan Blachowicz (+190)
Weight Class: Light Heavyweight (205 lbs)
Israel Adesanya will be looking to become the fifth double champ in UFC history when he takes on Light Heavyweight Champion Jan Blachowicz at UFC 259.
For Adesanya, it will be tough to top his last title defense against Paulo Costa. “Stylebender” turned in one of the most dominant title performances in UFC history in a quick demolition of his rival, Paulo Costa. The fight was built up for over a year, and many believed that Costa’s power could lead him to victory. In the end, the fight wasn’t even close.
None of Adesanya’s recent fights have been particularly close. His fight with Yoel Romero was an anomaly as both fighters looked to counter, leading to very little output. Against UFC legend Robert Whittaker, Adesanya again showed off his elite kick-boxing with a second round KO. The face of City Kickboxing had some of the best counters you’ll ever see against Robert Whittaker, securing him his 185 belt that he has yet to relinquish.
For Jan Blachowicz of “Polish Power” fame, he is a true light heavyweight and will be looking to defend his belt. Blachowicz made Poland the fourth nation to produce both a male and female UFC champion with his victory over Dom Reyes. Blachowicz was an underdog in the Reyes fight but it was all him once the fight began.
After a mixed bag in the UFC early on, Blachowicz has been on a rampage in recent years. He has secured knockout wins of Reyes, Corey Anderson and Luke Rockhold over his current winning streak, to go along with a decision win over Ronaldo Souza.
Against fighters who are moving up, Blachowicz has a solid record. The fact that Jan is fighting at his natural weight class and subsequent access to “Polish power” is his biggest advantage in this fight.
Outside that, it’s tough to pick against Adesanya. Unless he gets caught, it’s tough to see him not piecing up Jan from the outside. Adesanya is on pace to become an all time great due in large part to his movement. He is lightening quick and is arguably the best counter striker on the roster.
Ultimately I think that Israel Adesanya will either get the KO victory or, piece his way to a unanimous decision. It’s going to have to be knockout or bust for Jan, unless he can somehow make the fight boring as hell and grind on him for five rounds. It could happen, but I don’t see it.
Betting wise, I’m going with Adesanya moneyline in a parlay and Adesanya by KO at +125 in another. I did have .5u on Adesanya and Jamall Emmers moneyline from last weekend, but since that fight was scratched it just became $50 on Adesanya. I’m not laying a ton of money on this fight, but that’s just a personal preference. I would say that Israel Adesanya moneyline is a comfortable play.
Prediction and play: Israel Adesanya moneyline (-220) & Israel Adesanya by knockout (+125)
More UFC 259 Breakdowns:
Thiago Santos vs. Aleksandar Rakic
Song Yadong vs. Kyler Phillips