Thiago Moises vs. Alexander Hernandez, full fight breakdown + betting analysis

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Thaigo Moises (+188) vs. Alexander Hernandez (-225)

Weight Class: Lightweight (155 lbs)

There’s never a bad bout in the 155 pound division. Alexander Hernandez vs. Thiago Moises is no exception as the two find themselves in a featured prelim slot at UFC Vegas 20. Both fighters head to Vegas following very good results over their last respective outings.

For Hernandez, he bounced back in a big way with a first round knockout of Chris Gruetzemacher this past Halloween. Though a big favorite, Hernandez got it done the way you’d want to see and got the finish. This was much needed considering Hernandez had previously been KO’d by Drew Dober.

Though there’s no shame in a loss to an ascendant Dober, the Gruetzemacher knockout put a shaky three fight stretch to bed. Hernandez had previously secured a decision win over Francisco Trinaldo, though it was controversial. Many thought that Hernandez was a beneficiary of home town judges. There wasn’t much volume from either fighter as both looked to counter, but Trinaldo was advancing. Even with the win, it wasn’t a very convincing performance from Alexander “The Great.”

Prior to the win over Trinaldo, Hernandez caught a-lot of flack after getting massacred by Cowboy. Hernandez was dominated in all aspects of the bout with Cowboy, which isn’t good at this stage in Cowboy’s career. On top of that, Hernandez talked a-lot of trash and ended up getting clowned for that. But now that he’s back in the win column and training with a new gym, it seems like a new chapter for the once highly regarded prospect.

As for Thiago Moises, he has looked like a new fighter over his last two outings. The American Top Team man has secured impressive back-to-back victories over Michael Johnson and Bobby Green. An underdog in both fights, Moises secured a submission against Johnson and a very gritty decision victory over Green. In the Green fight, Moises looked as good as he’s ever looked on the feet.

In previous fights, Moises didn’t employ a-lot of volume on the feet. A-lot of one and done shots. In the Green fight, he took chances and was landing heavy. Lack of volume was a factor in his two UFC losses, which came against Beniel Dariush and Damir Ismagulov. No shame in either loss.

Now, this is a tough one to predict and the line keeps moving in favor of Hernandez. I don’t understand this if I’m being honest. Both fighters are very even statistically but if you’ve read my breakdowns before you know I’m not big on anything other than take downs and take down defense when it comes to MMA stats.

Hernandez has good take down defense but Thiago sets up his take downs very well. Plus, Hernandez has never been a guy to overwhelm his opponents with volume. He prefers to fight on the outside which could work to his benefit here. We’ve seen Moises struggle with longer fighters in the past.

With that said, I do think that Thiago Moises has some very underrated power and some nasty head kicks. He’s yet to land one flush in the UFC but it’s only a matter of time before he does. They are concise and powerful. Ultimately, I do think that Thiago Moises gets it done here either by decision or submission.

Betting wise, there is a good chance that Moises closes over +200 come bout time. This is kind of wild in my opinion, I really don’t see how Hernandez is such a big favorite. It’s far from my most confident pick but at +188, we can’t not take a .5U crack on Thiago Moises here.

Prediction and Play: Thiago Moises moneyline (+188)

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