John Castaneda vs. Eddie Wineland, full breakdown + betting analysis

Eddie Wineland (+108) vs. John Castaneda (-126)

Weight Class: Bantamweight (135 lbs)

This is a fight I’m very much looking forward to on the UFC Vegas 19 card. John Castaneda and Eddie Wineland is very good matchmaking and it really could go either way. The line reflects that, as it is essentially a pick em’.

For Eddie Wineland, the UFC veteran will be looking to get back on track after a brutal KO at the hands of Sean O’Malley last summer. Wineland just got caught badly, it happens to even the best of fighters. However, Wineland is also 1-3 over his last four fights, so the 36 year-old is in desperate need of a win.

As for John Castaneda, he will be making his second UFC performance after a debut loss to Nathaniel Wood. Castaneda took the fight on short notice and though he lost by decision, he had his moments in the fight. He looked like a fighter worth keeping an eye on and was able to survive Nathaniel Wood’s onslaughts, which are heavy volume. Now with a full camp, he finds himself with a great opportunity in Eddie Wineland.

There is a lot at stake for both fighters, which makes this a tough match-up. Ultimately, however, I think that John Castaneda will get it done by decision.

Castaneda has been on the UFC’s radar for quite some time but waited in order to fine tune his skills. He’s already proven that he can stand and trade with a top tier striker in Nathaniel Wood. Many people expected him to get stopped in the Wood fight, so a decision loss on short notice is nothing to sneeze at.

Ultimately, I just think that John Castaneda is the fresher fighter and it will show here. I expect this to be a close striking match-up, but ultimately Castaneda should be able to win on the score cards. Things like scar tissue also become a factor in fights like this, as does chin strength. Wineland has been in a lot more fights, which certainly has advantages, but he’s also coming off a brutal knockout. At 36, there are more factors working against Eddie Wineland than for him. Meanwhile, Castaneda doesn’t have much wear on the tires and is built for a decision win.

Betting wise, this is a close fight so I won’t be going crazy on bets with it. I have John Castaneda moneyline (-125) in some multi-leg “***k it” parlays, but I do like him to win by decision. I’ll be placing a small bet on that at (+180), which is great value. I also had a three-leg parlay that’s been reduced to two with the cancellation of Drakkar Klose vs. Luis Pena due to COVID-19. Now, it is just Castaneda moneyline (hedging a bit in case he gets the finish) and Sergei Spivak moneyline, which has already cashed.

Prediction and play: John Castaneda by points (+180)

More UFC Vegas 19 Breakdowns

Tom Aspinall vs. Andrei Arlovski

Chas Skelly vs. Jamall Emmers (cancelled at walk-out)


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