Kamaru Usman vs. Gilbert Burns, full breakdown + betting analysis

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Kamaru Usman will be headlining yet another UFC pay-per-view in search of his third title defense. After one of the most wild fights in recent memory with Colby Covington at UFC 245, and a decisive convincing victory over Jorge Masvdial in a super fight this past summer, Usman will now be faced with another tough task in Gilbert Burns.

Burns — now 34 — is on an impressive winning streak. A tried and true UFC veteran, the elite BJJ practitioner will be looking for his third straight underdog victory at UFC 258. Burns last emerged victorious over former champ Tyron Woodley in June, cruising to a decisive victory. Before that, he knocked out fellow Brazilian Demian Maia in brutal fashion.

Though an elite BJJ practitioner, Burns has heavy hands and has more than one impressive KO victory. He also has a great gas tank and has been nothing but impressive at 170.

But Kamaru Usman, in my opinion, is currently the best pound-for-pound fighter on the roster. He’s built perfectly for the welterweight division and seems to be much stronger than just about all of his opponents. Sure, critics will say he’s “boring”, but I doubt that he cares. Kamaru Usman simply mauls his opponents and has a very high fight IQ. He will make his opponent take the belt from him, he’s not foolish enough to try and prove a point.

Plus, there isn’t much left to prove. Usman turned in an in incredible performance against Colby Covington and was landing heavy late into the fight. His gas tank is something else, and if he can weather the storm against Colby on the feet, I just can’t see Burns have the answers.

I doubt Burns will have many opportunities to submit Usman, and I also doubt that Usman will take chances. If he has to foot stomp his way to another decision, he will.

Betting wise, the line on Kamaru Usman has only gotten better as fight time approaches. -255 is insane value and makes an excellent parlay piece, which I have used.

I had 1u on Usman and Rodolfo Vieira by points earlier in the night, so since that fight went poorly, I made a couple sprinkle parlays with Ricky Simon and Kelvin Gastelum respectively. I was more confident in those picks and thankfully they panned out. For you, Usman is a solid bet for whatever your purposes are.

Prediction and play: Kamaru Usman moneyline (-255) & Kamaru Usman by points (+110)

More UFC 258 Breakdowns

Kelvin Gastelum vs. Ian Heinisch

Brian Kelleher vs. Ricky Simón

Rodolfo Vieira vs. Anthony Hernandez

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