Super Bowl LV (55) Player Prop Analysis + Parlay Ideas
The Super Bowl is finally upon us and with it, one of the biggest gambling days of the year. When it comes to the big game, you can bet on basically anything. From what Tony Romo will talk about to the coin toss, there are props for it all when it comes to the Super Bowl.
While a lot of these props are just for fun, there are also the standard methods. As it turns out, this year’s game projects to be a great betting match-up between the Chiefs and Buccaneers. Both teams generate lots of offensive yardage, particularly in the passing department, and have reliable touchdown scorers. Travis Kelce and Mike Evans are always great touchdown at any time bets because of their red zone efficiency. Tyreek Hill is another reliable option, while both teams scored plenty of running back touchdowns in 2020.
If this game goes as projected, it should be a high scoring affair with multiple touchdowns on either side. The over sits at 53.5, which is very tempting.
With that said, this is a Super Bowl matchup that provides some excellent opportunities for same game parlays. So, let’s get into it.
The player prop I like the most for this game has to be the over for Rob Gronkowski receiving yards. While having some big moments, Gronk has largely been quiet with the Buccaneers, at least compared to his time with the Patriots. Especially during the playoffs, Gronk hasn’t seen a-lot of targets.
But over 30 yards is just impossible to pass up on. Gronk has played in multiple Super Bowls and has played at an elite level. He may be in the twilight of his career, but he has more than enough in him for a great showing on the biggest stage. 30 yards is cake, and the future hall of famer hauls in some long passes for a tight end. I think that Gronk will have at least one catch for more than 15 yards, which will set this up very well.
As far as a Rob Gronkowski touchdown goes, he’s certainly due for one. The odds for that sit around +220, which is tough to pass up.
Another great prop is Tom Brady alt passing yards at 275.5. Brady’s regular over hovers around 300, but I’d rather play it a bit more safe and go with the alt. You’ve gotta figure that the Bucs will be down at some point, perhaps for large portions of the second half. Combined with the fact that Brady is a super human in the Super Bowl, he should definitely get over 275 yards. If you think I’m being too cautious, feel free to go with his regular over because I’m sure he hits that as well.
Other great touchdown scorers are Travis Kelce, Tyreek Hill (though I don’t think the line is ever worth it on him) and Mike Evans. All three of these guys haul in plenty of touchdowns, with Evans and Kelce being primary red zone options. Clyde Edwards-Hellaire is another solid bet with a better payout, though he sometimes seems to disappear from the game plan.
If you wanna go outside the box and increase your pay, which I always do, I really like Ronald Jones to score at +270. Fournette has seen his role expand drastically in recent weeks, but Jones was the primary ball carrier for the bulk of the season and is still involved a good amount. Most importantly, Jones is the guy Tampa Bay uses to punch the ball in on the goal line. In a high scoring game, this is a great value.
Lastly, if we’re betting on this game turning out out to be an offensive slug fest, players like Mecole Hardman and Cameron Brate have great value. Their over/unders for receiving yards each sit at 28.5. Obviously these types of players are riskier, as they have less involvement, but when the over/under is this low, they’re worth taking a chance on in high scoring games. Hardman in particular has big play value, so he can surpass 28 with one catch. Scotty Miller is another name if you wanna go this route.
I used a combination of these to make a couple same game parlays and may make at least one more by game time. It’s tough to hit all three, or even two, but with three to four legs you just need to hit one.
Best of luck and tail if you like money!
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