5 House Seats that Republicans must flip in 2020 (2.0)

There are less than two weeks left until the 2020 Election and polls nationwide are quickly tightening. Joe Biden’s lead in key swing states like Pennsylvania is down to just two points in several polls. The fight for control of the House of Representatives is still looming. Republicans believe that a Trump victory will lead them to flip enough house seats to take back to control of the lower chamber and the speakership.

The current generic ballot has Democrats leading the congressional vote by 6 points nationwide. They won 2018 nationwide congressional races by over 8 percent. If the GOP can narrow these margins to 3 or 4 percent they could have a chance to regain control.

RELATED: 5 House Seats that Republicans must flip in 2020 (1.0)

Anyway, here are 5 house seats that Republicans must flip in 2020. A few of these seats are located in Midwestern districts made up of Obama-Trump working class voters.

5. Jared Golden (ME-2)

Golden defeated incumbent Bruce Poliquin by just a single point in the 2018 midterms. 2018 was the first year that Maine began to use rank-choice voting which allowed Golden to come away with a narrow victory. Dale Crafts is the Republican challenger for this cycle but has been trailing by over 20 points in polls.

Maine’s 2nd Congressional District swung by 19 points in 2016 when it voted for President Trump by 10.3% after voting for President Obama by 8.6%. There’s a strong chance that Trump holds the district once again but it may not be enough to unseat Golden. Either way, Crafts will have a chance if Trump performs strongly.

4. Angie Craig (MN-2)

Minnesota’s 2nd Congressional District is a suburban bellwether district. In the last three presidential elections, the distrct has voted for the winner of the national election by under a three point margin. Jason Lewis formerly represented the district and lost in the Midterms to Angie Craig by 5 points.

Craig is being challenged by Tyler Kistner in 2020. Cook Political Report rates the seat as Likely Democratic despite it being a R+2 district. If Trump wins the district by greater margins than he did in 2016, he could become the first Republican since Richard Nixon in 1972 to win the state of Minnesota.

3. Abigail Spanberger (VA-7)

Spanberger was among several women who flipped suburban districts blue in 2018. Virginia’s 7th Congressional District covers much of the central part of the state including the Richmond suburbs. While the district is historically Republican, much of Virginia has trended Democratic in the past decades.

Nick Freitas is the Republican challenger in 2020. He is an Army veteran whose currently a member of the Virginia House of Delegates. The district voted for President Trump by 6 points and with a one-term incumbent back up for re-election, Spanberger will face some risk.

2. Conor Lamb (PA-17)

Lamb was first elected to Congress in a March 2018 special election. Despite being in a district that President Trump won by 19 points in 2016, Lamb narrowly won by 700 votes. He ran on a moderate, working class campaign that appealed to many in the area and was able to pull off the upset.

In the 2018 Midterms, Pennsylvania had re-districting done and Lamb was placed in a more moderate district that leaned slightly Republican. He faced Keith Rothfus — a fellow incumbent — and won decisively by nearly 13 points. Combat Veteran Sean Parnell is the challenger and has a decent chance to flip the seat. A poll from September showed Parnell trailing by only a single point.

1. Cindy Axne (IA-3)

In the Midterms, Democrats flipped two of Iowa’s four house seats including the 3rd District. Axne defeated the inclumbent David Young by just over a point and is facing Young once again in 2020. The district voted for President Trump by 3 points after President Obama won the district in both his elections.

Young is a strong challenger with goo dname recoginition. Polling has suggested that Axne is leading by 11 points but that is highly doubtful. If President Trump wins Iowa by similar magrins as he did in 2016, there’s a fair chance of him helping carry Young over the top. It’s highly doubtful the race isn’t within a few points.

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