Tom Aspinall vs. Alan Baudot, full breakdown + gambling analysis

Alan Baudot (+390) vs. Tom Aspinall (-550)

Weight Class: Heavyweight (265 lbs)

England’s Tom Aspinall will find himself as the biggest favorite at UFC Fight Island 5 when he squares off with UFC newcomer Alan Baudot. Aspinall, a training partner of Darren Till at Team Kaobon, last made short work of Jake Collier in his UFC debut. Aspinall was barely touched and displayed top class footwork en-route to a first round KO. The 27 year-old Aspinall’s boxing base was on full display against Collier. Aspinall is 1-0 as a professional boxer, having secured a win in 2017.

Prior to the UFC, Tom Aspinall went 2-0 with Cage Warriors. Just as was the case with Collier, neither of his opponents made it past the second minute of the first round.

As for Alan Baudot, the 32 year-old will be making his UFC debut following a disqualification victory over Todd Stoute at TKO 47 back in April of 2019. Baudot was initially choked out, but the result was overturned following a positive test for marijuana for Stoute. Prior to TKO 47, Baudot KO’d Yasuke Masuda on the regional scene back in May of 2018.

Now, Tom Aspinall is a big favorite for a reason. Baudot has not been nearly as active as Aspinall over the last couple of years, nor has he faced anything close to this level of competition. Aspinall has a lot of hype behind him; and while it’s ridiculous to say that things like sparring with Tyson Fury truly move the needle, it’s got to do wonders for Aspinall’s confidence. He’s already used to big moments and he trains with plenty of seasoned UFC veterans at Team Kaobon.

Tom Aspinall will simply be too much to handle for Alan Baudot, especially for the latter’s first UFC appearance. Baudot’s striking is somewhat wild while Aspinall’s is crisp and composed. Though Jake Collier looked like a shell of himself this past summer, Aspinall did exactly what he should have done and secured a quick KO. I like him to do the same here.

Gambling wise, a Tom Aspinall KO/TKO currently sits at (-170) on Fanduel (PA). While this is a bit hefty for a method of victory prop, it is a steal given the level of confidence many, myself included, have in this result. I wouldn’t even bother hedging with a double chance, just go with the knockout prop.

Prediction and play: Tom Aspinall KO/TKO (-170)

More UFC Fight Island 5 Breakdowns:

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