Brad Riddell vs. Alex da Silva, full breakdown + gambling analysis

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Alex da Silva (+260) vs. Brad Riddell (-320)

Weight Class: Lightweight (155 lbs)

Brad Riddell will be one of four City Kickboxing representatives making an appearance at UFC 253 when he takes on Alex da Silva in a featured prelim slot. Riddell — a former striking coach at Tiger Muy Thai — is 2-0 in the UFC and is currently riding a five fight winning streak. As for Alex da Silva, UFC 253 will also mark his third UFC appearence. The 24 year-old is 22-2 overall and 1-1 in the UFC. He last fought in August of 2019, picking up a win Rodrigo Vargas.

When Brad Riddell last fought, he won a close decision against Magomed Ankalaev in his hometown of Auckland, New Zealand. The soon to be 29 year-old Riddell scored a knockdown in round one but struggled on the ground at times. The fight was much closer than Riddell’s first appearance in the Octagon back at UFC 243, when he put on an impressive showing against Jamie Mullarkey. Riddell knocked Mullarkey’s mouth-piece out more than once and just about secured a KO.

So far, at the UFC level, Brad Riddell has shown flashes of greatness. His boxing combinations are long, crisp and heavy. He has landed heavy shots in the third round of both of his UFC fights and is a training partner of Alexander Volkanovski. The City Kickboxing man has been a bit shaky on the ground at times, though he is quite big for the division and has worked his way out of tough positions. Should the fight go there, I give the edge to da Silva, who is the longer fighter.

Alex da Silva is a solid striker in his own right, however, and at just 24 years of age, he still has plenty of room to grow at the UFC level. A slight reach advantage could certainly help him on the feet in this one.

With all that said, it’s hard for me not to pick Brad Riddell here. He has come so close to securing knockouts in both of his UFC fights and he will certainly be the toughest challenge da Silva has faced to date. In a big night for City Kickboxing, I think we will see Brad Riddell pick up his first UFC stoppage with a KO tonight.

At (-320), Vegas is certainly thinking that “Quake” Riddell is going to emerge victorious. The method of victory is less clear, however, with FanDuel Sportsboook (PA) listing both Riddell by points or KO at (+160). It could be another decision, but Riddell certainly has the power to get a finish and he will be looking to make a big statement. I believe that he will, which is why I’m going with Brad Riddell by KO at (+160).

Prediction and play: Brad Riddell by KO

More UFC 253 breakdowns:

Kai Kara-France vs. Brandon Royval

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