Ottman Azaitar vs. Khama Worthy, full breakdown + gambling analysis


Ottman Azaitar (+112) vs. Khama Worthy (-132)

Weight Class: Lightweight (155 lbs)

Khama Worthy and Ottman Azaitar have three UFC appearances between each other. Pittsburgh’s Worthy has fought twice since last August, bursting onto the scene with a 6-to-1 underdog win over Devonte Smith. Smith was a former training partner of Worthy’s and the win was one of the biggest upsets of 2019. After that, “The Deathstar” secured a third round submission against Luis Pena back in June. Worthy bounced back from a poor round two in order to secure a guillotine choke in the third, securing yet another underdog win.

As for Azaitar, the Moroccan’s first UFC win came via knockout at UFC 242 in Abu Dhabi. It was an absolutely viscous KO that came against Teemu Packalen. All told, Ottman Azaitar is 12-0 professionally, having previously fought with Brave FC.

So three UFC fights, three stoppage victories for this co-main event.

Stylistically this fight should also be a-lot of fun. I don’t expect it to hit the mat and it will be a battle between forward pressure and counter-striking.

Ottman Azaitar is a very aggressive fighter who is sure to be coming forward. He has only seen a third round once in his career. He throws lengthy combinations and is absolutely viscous in close. Most fighters who attempt to clinch with him stop doing so after eating a couple tight uppercuts.

As for Worthy, his counter striking is what has shined the most thus far in his UFC career. He has great faints and head movement. We’ve also seen that he can dig deep in a fight, having weathered some adversity his last go around. Worthy is also riding a seven fight winning streak, with his last loss coming outside the UFC against Kyle Nelson. Nelson is now on the roster will also be on the card, squaring up with Billy Quarantillo.

Size is definitely worth nothing in this one and seems to be the deciding factor for many. Khama Worthy has four inches of height on Azaitar and a listed reach edge of three. For a counter striker, this is certainly good news.

However, I like Ottman Azaitar in this one. His pressure is simply too relentless and while Khama has the tools to counter, I think Azaitar does enough damage before it matters. Though we’ve never seen Ottman Azaitar in a dog fight, I’m not too worried. Worthy didn’t look like a world beater in the third last time and Pena more or less clinched himself into a guillotine. I’m not taking away from his win, but it does seem to be inflated by some.

Even with the reach and style advantages going to Worthy, I still expect Azaitar to land his signature combinations. Worthy doesn’t wear punches very well, especially big ones, so I think this will have an effect on the score cards. If Azaitar doesn’t get the KO, he should do enough damage to secure the decision.

Gambling wise I’m going to stick with the moneyline on this one. Worthy’s chin should be good enough to weather the storm but a KO is certainly possible. (+112) is good enough for me, but Fanduel Sportsbook (PA) currently has Azaitar KO at (+210) if you’re interested in that.

Prediction and play: Ottman Azaitar moneyline (+112)

More UFC Vegas 10 breakdowns:

Kyle Nelson vs. Billy Quarantillo, full breakdown + gambling analysis

Leave a Reply