UFC on ESPN+ 31: Vicente Luque vs. Randy Brown, full breakdown + gambling analysis

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Personally, I don’t understand this matchmaking for Vicente Luque. The Brazilian is currently ranked 11th in the welterweight division and has won seven of his last eight fights. Luque has secured the finish in all but one of these victories, the lone decision being a win over Mike Perry. That fight of course left Perry with a flattened nose and earned Vicente Luque his fourth fight of the night bonus.

Yeah…… Photo Credit: UFC

Before losing to Wonderboy Thompson last November, Vicente Luque was riding a six fight winning streak. This includes victories over Perry, Niko Price, Jailin Turner and Bryan Barberena. Prior to the winning streak, Luque was choked out by Leon Edwards. He has also knocked out Belal Muhammad, Hector Urbina and Chad Laprise while only losing one other fight, his UFC debut on TUF.

So I don’t understand this matchmaking for Vicente Luque. I don’t really see what it does for him, seeing as his only two outright UFC losses are to elite fighters. It’s a great match-up for the fans and a sleeper Fight of the Night candidate, however, because Randy Brown is no joke.

Brown will head to Las Vegas riding a two fight winning streak over Bryan Barberena and Warlley Alves. Prior to that, he lost via witchcraft to Niko Price when he was knocked out in guard courtesy of reverse hammer fists. His only other losses are to Belal Muhammad and Michael Graves. Brown is 6-3 in the UFC and 12-3 overall.

The win/loss record is far from the whole story when it comes to Rude Boy Randy Brown, however, as I believe that he is just getting started. He earned a performance of the night bonus against Alves last November courtesy of a second round arm-triangle and is a very well rounded fighter. He is long for the division, which gives him a striking edge in most match-ups. His kicks are concise and powerful and his cardio is very good. On the ground, Brown has secured three submissions in the UFC and can be a tough fighter to get out from under from because of his size.

Brown will have four inches in height for this one to compliment a two inch reach advantage.

As for Vicente Luque, he is one of the most entertaining fighters on the roster (in my opinion) due to his ability to take one and give one. He is certainly not a very defensive fighter, but his chin is seemingly made of granite. Luque has been rocked multiple times in his UFC career but he’s never been KO’d and he usually manages to rally back for a finish of his own.

In addition to his many knockouts, Vicente Luque has registered three submissions in the UFC. The Gilbert Burns training partner has very good jiu-jitsu and lightening fast transitions, which gives him an edge on the ground in this one.

I will also be looking out for Luque’s leg kicks in this bout. Brown will be looking to keep him at range, so expect Luque to chop down that lead leg. Bryan Barberena was having some success doing this against Brown and Luque’s kicks are a step above. He landed several in his last fight with Niko Price that did damage (though Price dogged it out).

I like Vicente Luque in this fight because he just always seems to get it done. Randy Brown could certainly win here and I think he will be able to have his moments from range, but Luque will get in the pocket eventually. I do worry about the amount of damage Luque has taken in his career and feel as though the tread will come off the tires eventually, but I don’t see Randy Brown having the power to put him away.

The line is solid for a Vicente Luque fight, with the Brazilian by the way of New Jersey currently sitting at (-180) on Fanduel. I like this and will be sticking with it, though a points/KO double chance could be in the cards if you want to go that route. I wouldn’t because I could see a submission happening here and quite frankly, I just don’t know. I’m just going to stick with the moneyline and parlay it with Ray Borg. If the massive reach advantage scares you in the Borg fight, I also like Markus Perez at (-210) this week.

Randy Brown by points (+500) isn’t a bad hedge at all if you follow the parlay advice. As stated above, Vicente Luque has never been KO’d and if it happens tomorrow night, I’ll honestly be surprised. Brown double chance, points/TKO sits at (+175) if you wanted a less profitable, but more secure hedge.

Prediction and play: Vicente Luque moneyline (-180)

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