UFC 251: Rose Namajunas vs Jessica Andrade, full breakdown

Rose Namajunas (-196) vs. Jessica Andrade (+164)

When: July 11th, 10:30 PM Eastern Time

Where: Yas Island, United Arab Emirates

The much anticipated rematch between Rose Namajunas and Jessica Andrade goes down tonight. While this current bout won’t be for the strap, it will almost certainly be a title eliminator for the strawweight division.

It’s been a long lay-off for these women and both are coming off a loss. Rose Namajunas hasn’t set foot in the Octagon since the pair’s last fight. Thug Rose was seemingly in total control of the last bout until a powerful body slam abruptly ended her night. Before that, it truly wasn’t even close.

As for Andrade, she last suffered a first round knockout defeat to Zhang Weili in August 2019. 

I’ll try to keep this one as simple as possible, because it’s likely Rose Namajunas wins this fight for the same reasons we saw in the first matchup. Rose has the reach, speed, and volume edge while Andrade has the brute strength. 

Namajunas was absolutely shredding Andrade through two rounds of what could’ve been five, dealing heavy damage. Andrade truly had no answer. The only critique I’d have is that Rose maybe exerted a bit too much early in that fight, but that shouldn’t matter here with three rounds.

Andrade won on a complete freak incident last time. While her strength will give her a grappling edge and her power cannot be discounted, I just don’t see how Thug Rose loses this matchup twice. I picture similar results to the first fight but, the odds should be even more in favor of Namajunas with three rounds instead of five.

Rose Namajunas is my pick for the fight, and I like her to win by points. The moneyline (-190) is a great value in my opinion, but Namajunas by points (+190) is even better. 

Prediction and play: Rose Namajunas by points (+190)

All odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.

More UFC 251 Breakdowns:

Paige VanZant vs. Amanda Ribas

Jiri Prochazka vs. Volkan Oezdemir

Danny Henry vs. Makwan Amirkhani

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