UFC Vegas 4: Jason Witt vs. Takashi Sato, breakdown and gambling analysis

Jason Witt (+215) vs. Takashi Sato (-280)

Following a positive COVID-19 test for a cornerman of Ramiz Brahlmaj, Takashi Sato will be facing UFC newcomer Jason “the Vanilla Gorilla” Witt. With this signing, the UFC simply has too many vanilla gorilla’s.

Witt (17-5) is taking the fight on a day’s notice. He is currently riding a six fight winning streak between multiple promotions, his last fight taking place on February 22nd. As for Sato, the Japan native is currently 1-1 in the UFC. He knocked out Ben Saunders in his first appearance but was largely man-handled then submitted by Belal Muhammad his last go around.

To keep this one as simple as possible, I think that this is too much for Witt given the time (or lack thereof) he’s had to prepare. We’ve seen these short notice pandemic fights go any number of ways, but Sato simply has more high level experience than Witt. Belal Muhammad is on the cusp of being ranked following a great win over Lyman Good, so going three rounds with him doesn’t look half bad.

There is certainly a chance for Witt, who will almost certainly be the one coming forward. I just think that Sato – who has been in fight camp – has the counter striking necessary to get the job done one way or another. Witt will either have to dominate on the ground or keep pace with Sato over three rounds (tough given the lack of notice), otherwise I see Sato taking over on the feet.

Gambling wise, there could certainly be better value in the moneyline but these Apex fights are very unpredictable. This is especially the case with Takashi Sato, who I could see winning any number of ways. For that reason, I’m just sticking with the moneyline and parlaying it with Mike Perry. I won’t break down Perry vs. Gall, but it’s a similar story. I think that Perry will win, I just don’t know how. I could also see Gall sneaking out a victory. The point is that I think Sato will win, the line just has no value by itself.

Combining Sato and Perry currently yields a line of (-130) on Fanduel, which I’m cool with. If you’d like, there’s plenty of European soccer with favorable lines if you’d like to combine with one of those instead.

Prediction and play: Takashi Sato (-280)

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